security or hegemony? rwanda and the eastern congo dilemma

how a small state overestimated the reach of its diplomatic credit

When CNN’s Larry Madowo asked Paul Kagame on Feb 3rd 2025 whether Rwandan troops were operating in eastern Congo, the Rwandan president replied with “I don’t know”.

The answer was interesting, not because I believed it literally, but because it avoided the trap the journalist was attempting to put him in. Exactly a year later, on Feb 3rd 2026, in a speech, Kagame explained that a more direct response could have been used in legal or diplomatic proceedings. Ambiguity was safer. It reduced exposure. It kept control.

For years, that approach worked for Rwanda. The country mastered the art of operating in gray zones, saying little, committing less, and framing everything through the language of security.

But the Washington Accords changed the terrain.