i was wrong about saudi arabia’s pact with pakistan
the pact was never about israel. it was about iran all along
A few months ago, I argued that the Saudi–Pakistan defense pact was really about Israel. ⬇️
That reading doesn’t hold up anymore.
What we’re seeing now makes something much clearer, that this pact was never about Israel. It was always about Iran. And more specifically, it was about a war Saudi Arabia fears it cannot fight on its own.
a war riyadh hoped others would fight for it
Saudi Arabia didn’t want to be stuck in a long regional war with Iran. Over the past few years, the kingdom has been trying to stabilize, not escalate. Vision 2030, foreign investment, tourism, megaprojects, none of that works in a region where missiles are flying over Riyadh.
They even tried diplomacy. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore relations in a deal brokered by China, reopening embassies and committing to non-interference after years of hostility. That alone tells you where Saudi thinking was: avoid this exact scenario if possible. But avoiding a war and wanting your main rival weakened aren’t the same thing.
There are reports that Mohammed bin Salman saw this conflict as a chance for the U.S. and Israel to weaken Iran, while Saudi Arabia stayed out of the main fighting and avoided paying the biggest price.
That contradiction is the point.
Riyadh didn’t want a prolonged war on its own territory. But it may have wanted Iran hit hard enough that the problem is solved by someone else. But now that scenario it didn’t want, is here.
Iran has been hitting bases and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia tied to U.S. interests. But if it can do that, it can obviously hit Saudi Arabia directly. Fighter jets, bases, infrastructure, government buildings. The vulnerability isn’t theoretical anymore.
